Every quarter, Mike Lloyd of The HomeHappy Team and Dallas Crick of Hilbert & Crick Real Estate Group put their predictions on the record, then check who got closest the next time they sit down together. This page is the running scorecard. It’s updated each round, and nothing here is financial advice.
Fall 2026 calls
| Prediction | Dallas | Mike | Result |
|---|
| Canada’s inflation rate | 2.4% | 3.6% | Checked at our next recording |
| Oil, US$ a barrel (about $93 when recorded) | $90 | $80 | Checked at our next recording |
| Kelowna benchmark home price | Down | Down, but not dramatically | Checked at our next recording |
| First snow that sticks on the valley floor | December 15 | December 10 | Checked at our next recording |
Recorded October 2, 2026.
How each call gets checked
- Inflation: the year-over-year Consumer Price Index from Statistics Canada’s latest release before we record.
- Oil: the West Texas Intermediate price in US dollars on the day we record.
- Kelowna home prices: the benchmark price from the Association of Interior Realtors’ monthly report. We use the benchmark rather than the average because one big sale can swing an average. Here’s why average prices and price indexes disagree.
- First snow: the first day snow actually stays on the ground in town.
Why Dallas doesn’t trust the averages
Dallas called the benchmark down and said the published numbers don’t match what he sees in the field, especially the gap between list prices and what homes actually sell for. Mike agreed it would be down, but not dramatically, and pointed out that a single $2.7 million sale can throw an average off. For what a falling price means at your renewal, see how to compare renewal offers.
More from the series
All the videos · 60 Seconds with Mike Lloyd · 60 Seconds with Dallas Crick · Why bond yields are rising
Full transcript
Mike: Okay, so we’re going to record some predictions now. These should be fascinating to see how they come out. The first one we’re going to cover is the Canadian inflation rate. So Dallas, what do you think the Canadian inflation rate will be the next time we get together?
Dallas: It’s going to be 2.4%, and the realistic numbers are between 8 and 10.
Mike: Realistic?
Dallas: Realistic.
Mike: Okay, and I’m saying it’s going to be 3.6%. Oil. Right now oil is just under 100 bucks. I think it was $93 today. What do you think it’s going to be the next time we get together and talk?
Dallas: I have to remember how to print.
Mike: Me too.
Dallas: I think it’s going to be 90.
Mike: I wrote that pretty small there. Okay, that’s good. I think they’re still going to be hurting for oil, but somehow they’re able to suppress that price. I think we’re going to solve it and it’s going to be 80 bucks. Okay, on to the next question. This one’s a little closer to home. On the Kelowna benchmark price for homes, is it going to be up, down or flat next time we get together?
Dallas: It’s going to be down. I don’t really trust the stats for some reason. From what I see of where the price is at, for the average price, the median price, to what I see out there, they don’t seem to correlate. And I’ve got into it with a couple of brokers who said, you’ve got to trust the numbers, don’t trust the guys in the field. And I’m like, that doesn’t make any sense. I trust the guys in the field. And from what your list price is to what the actual selling price is, there’s a substantial difference.
Mike: Yeah, and I also said it was going to be down, but I don’t think it’s going to be dramatically down. And I think to your point about the numbers, what can throw that off is, I mean, you sell one house that’s 2.7 million, and that can throw off the numbers a little bit too. So yeah, hard to trust them when you see what’s really going on in the street, right? Okay, the date we’re going to have the first snow that actually sticks to the valley floor.
Dallas: I’m going December 15th, with this El Niño I’m hearing. I think it’s going to be a while, even though I got ski passes. It’s probably going to be good for nothing, but I’d rather spend 2,000 bucks on ski passes and have no snow.
Mike: Yeah, I’m saying December 10th. I kind of doubt we’re going to have any snow at all, but yeah, we’ve got to put down a date. So okay, and the last, the wild card, is we’re going to see who is closest on these and then who was most right. So we’ll fill that in, and then we’ll come back to you next time.
Dallas: Right on.
